Quick question – if phase-3 trials are complete in September, and the vaccine is announced to provide protection against COVID, when can I, as a non healthcare worker who’s not high risk to the virus, expect to get vaccinated?
The producers have confirmed that 300m doses will be available for the US by September/October. I assume distribution will vary by area, but you’d hope a decent operation would have it in wide circulation for those who want it within a couple of months.
Edit: just saw I assumed you were from the US, sorry. It’s unclear for those outside the US and UK. I personally would guess most countries would get it by the end of 2021.
I’d assume it would be a priority to vaccinate those who are most vulnerable first.
So, essential workers, elderly people, children.
In terms of production capacity you’d have to look at how much can be produced vs. how many people can be vaccinated.
The current claim is that 40 million doses of the vaccine will be able to be produced at a new facility that is being built by the end of the year.
Combine that with existing capacity and I think the entire population (Hopefully even antivaxxers by law) will be vaccinated by the first couple months of 2021.
Or you could take the China approach and start injecting your prototype vaccine into your military before anyone else.
I really hope so. I know if the phase III trials successfully conclude, they can start ramping up production in Sept. I think realistically most people wouldn’t be able to get it until Oct-Nov. at the earliest. But If we could have a viable vaccine (even if it only offers temporary protection, or just makes catching it less severe) before the new year. That would be world changing.
Edit: I understand the vaccine is already being produced. I meant more that once (hopefully) it is successful, it can be all hands on deck to get it out to the world. I no good with words.
Yep, I mean, our main focus should be vaccinating at risk groups, or high vectors for spread, like doctors, nurses, teachers maybe.
Once we get those groups vaccinated, deaths, and spread should hopefully get a lot better. Then we can get the rest of the population under control, and get to herd immunity.
I think they’ve actually started ramping production significantly (with the help of a $750 million donation from Gates last month)– the target is 400 million total vaccines by end of 2020 (much of that being distributed within the US). Oct – Nov is still the most viable timeline for when people can start getting vaccinated, but as long as nothing goes wrong in Phase III then I think we’re in a great position.
One concern for the US specifically though:
A growing number of polls find so many people saying they would not get a coronavirus vaccine that its potential to shut down the pandemic could be in jeopardy. Distrust of it is particularly pronounced in African-American communities, which have been disproportionately devastated by the virus. But even many staunch supporters of immunization say they are wary of this vaccine.